Scenario+planning+method

[|What is scenario thinking?] [|Scenario thinking according to Wikipedia]

Why scenarios?
A scenario is basically a story that describes a possible future. Building and using scenarios can help people explore what the future might look like. Decision makers can use scenarios to think about critical risks and opportunities in the future and to explore ways in which these might unfold. Scenarios are a vehicle to highlight the critical uncertainties ahead that might affect learning. Scenario development provides a process, a common language and tools so that people from a variety of disciplines and backgrounds can work together effectively on these things. The scenarios themselves broaden people’s perspectives on the future. They help us to become more adaptable in the face of change.

How scenarios? Key concepts
There are a number of key concepts which are important to keep in mind when creating scenarios. The picture below highlights the actor as the starting point. Depending on the focus question this can be a different actor. The actor can be a single individual, an organization or even a market. In this case we defined the actor as the Green Jobs Global Team.The next circle defines the transactional environment. These are the factors that the actor directly interfaces – transacts with. In this case this could be .........The largest circle is the contextual environment. These are the factors that shape the transactional environment. Key in the scenario planning process is to identify the driving forces that define the shape of the transactional environment. In the Green Jobs thematic this means things like .... .....
 * Focus on the contextual environment**

Image to be adapted based on the Green Jobs theme:



Key in the scenario process is to uncover the ‘iceberg’. The idea is to move from new events to patterns of system behaviour to the deeper system structures – driving forces.
 * Identifying the driving forces**

© paul kline When identifying the different [|driving forces]it is important to take into account many of the factors that can have an impact. What are the deep trends that are currently defining the world of green jobs. What are those forces which will act to change the future?
 * Use a broad set of key drivers**

The table below highlights some of the key areas for consideration.


 * ~ Area ||~ Example elements ||~ Types of questions / uncertainties ||
 * Technical forces || Green Jobs growth || Will we move to a scenario of creating more new green jobs or rather towards a scenario of inclusion? ||
 * Economic forces || Economic climate || What will the impact of an economic downturn be? ||
 * Organizational forces || Green Jobs team || How will the green jobs global team be organized? How will the structure look like (more closed or more open and networked? ||
 * Political forces || LegislationGlobal vs. Local || Will there be global standards / mindset or local focus? ||
 * Other? Technological? ||  ||   ||

Criteria for good scenarios
Scenarios are reasonable and credible answers to the **“what if?” questions** that underpin survival in business. They are **not forecasts or projections**. They are **not predictions** of what’s to come. Nor are they preferences, views of how we would like the world to evolve. Scenarios provide alternative views of the future. Good scenarios are:
 * Plausible – not easily dismissed
 * Recognisable from the signals of the present
 * Relevant and of consequence for the user’s decisions
 * Challenging
 * Internally consistent – based on analysis